The mobile industry has continued to play a crucial role in society in 2021, helping billions of people around the world stay in touch with friends, family and colleagues as the lockdowns and disruptions associated with the pandemic develop. .
The deployments of the 5G are offered by a rythme soutenu, the new smartphones ont seduit les consommateurs et les entreprises, even the operators of telecommunications are diversified dans de nouveaux domaines pour répondre à la demand de les sophisticates et les entreprises. from distance. Meanwhile, the year ended with discussions about the metaverse and the role mobile communications can play in bringing this vision of an immersive and interconnected future to life.
In today's climate, it is more difficult than ever to forecast with any degree of certainty. Covid-19 and an ever-changing technological landscape guarantee it. But that doesn't stop us from trying. Here are five things to keep in mind in 2022.
5G Adoption Will Increase But Phone Shortage Will Persist
The first prediction would hardly have required Nostradamus's alleged abilities, but 5G coverage will continue to expand in 2022 and adoption will increase. Ericsson says there will be 600 million 5G subscribers by the end of the year, driven by carrier deployments, strong demand in China and North America, and the availability of cheaper compatible phones.
However, as several industry observers have reiterated time and again in recent years, 5G is the first generation of mobile infrastructure where network availability is more prevalent than phone adoption. Although the pandemic has had an unavoidable impact on network construction, the global chip shortage is having longer-term effects.
The smartphone market showed some signs of recovery in early 2021, but the lack of key components contributed to a 6,8% decline in the third quarter, according to Gartner. While the premium segment is less affected by a shortage of key components such as radio frequency units, power management circuits, and other chips, the lack of 5G phones in the mid-to-low segment of the market could hamper adoption.
Deloitte predicts that the shortage will last until at least 2022 and perhaps even 2023. However, some analysts are optimistic about the market outlook next year. CCS Insight predicts that 900 million 5G devices will be sold in 2022, which represents half of all sales, provided that providers and operators do their best to generate enthusiasm among consumers.
Is Telecom Consolidation Back On The Cards?
In 2016, Three and O2 scrapped their € 10,25 billion merger plan amid hostility from UK and EU regulators who feared a reduction from four carriers to three would hurt competition. The proposal followed similar agreements in other European countries where the investigation suggested that prices had increased accordingly.
The two parties went ahead, with O2 merging with Virgin Media earlier this year, and Three looking for other areas to grow as a pure operator in the UK. Importantly, in 2020, Three's parent company CK Hutchison successfully challenged the EU's decision to block the deal.
Fast forward to 2021 and the carrier is again calling for consolidation to help cut costs and finance investments in fiber optics and 5G. Mergers and partnerships have been observed in other parts of the world and it appears that European regulators are more receptive to such initiatives given the importance of telecommunications to economic strategies and society in general in a post-pandemic world.
OpenRAN and the great dynamics of diversification
The OpenRAN ecosystem was strengthened in 2021, with signs that the telecommunications industry is moving beyond a small group of large providers into the 5G era. Five of Europe's leading mobile operator groups - Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telefónica, TIM and Vodafone - have agreed to work together on open network technologies, and governments around the world are supporting R&D and marketing efforts.
Some of this aid is driven by geopolitics. The UK government, in particular, has been a strong supporter of OpenRAN following the decision to ban Huawei from rolling out 5G in Britain. However, OpenRAN could also reduce costs and increase innovation by removing barriers to entry for small market players. Vodafone UK has committed to implementing OpenRAN on at least 2500 sites by 2027.
Expect to see more testing, especially when it comes to interoperability, and more partnerships in 2022.
5G will begin to impact the business world
To date, almost all commercial 5G implementations are based on non-autonomous 5G (NSA 5G), which uses new radio technologies but is still based on the underlying 4G core. However, 2021 saw the switch to standalone 5G (SA 5G), which uses a cloud-based virtual kernel that allows data to be processed closer to the point of collection and enables features such as network segmentation.
SA 5G offers guaranteed speeds, improved reliability and ultra-low latency, features that will enable the most revolutionary 5G applications and generate the most important revenue opportunities for operators. These include the Industrial Internet of Things (IoT), advanced robotics, and mixed reality (MR).
Backed by partnerships with the IT industry that will allow operators to diversify their offerings, companies will increasingly use or at least explore the use of 5G for private networks, advanced computing and Internet services. Objects (IoT).
Sustainability will remain a key issue
The mobile industry has long been positioned not only as a catalyst for economic growth, but also as a force for good, especially when it comes to environmental issues. The warnings from the UN climate change report and the COP26 conference raised public awareness of sustainability like never before and operators were eager to show off their green credentials.
Switching to renewable energy sources, adopting more energy efficient network standards like 5G and developing services like IoT that allow customers to reduce their carbon footprint are three examples. Expect to see a lot more in 2022.
However, it is also important that the entire industry continue and accelerate its efforts. Deloitte predicts that smartphones will generate 146 million tons of CO2 in 2022 and although this represents less than 0.5% of global emissions, analysts believe it can be reduced.
Production should be more energy efficient, devices and materials should be recycled wherever possible, and phones should be easier to repair. All these measures will reduce emissions and e-waste, allowing the mobile industry to realize its environmental potential. Recent events suggest that there is room for optimism.