Despite a few years of rising market share, AMD Ryzen desktop processor revenue is now expected to drop by around 26% in 2022, with Intel's Alder Lake success cited as one of the likely causes. .
As reported by WCCFTech (opens in a new tab), Joseph Moore, Market Analyst at Morgan Stanley (opens in a new tab), says AMD Ryzen revenue could fall this year due to a combination of several factors within the industry. The PC market saw a general decline in 2022 (which itself was caused by various issues), and with fewer people looking to buy mainstream desktop processors, competition has been fierce.
Unfortunately for AMD, Intel's 12th Gen Alder Lake processors have been very well received, and with AMD lagging behind with next-gen versions, it seems that people building a PC don't want to wait for the next generation. Zen 4.
However, not all is bleak. While Moore also predicts a further 2% drop in AMD Ryzen revenue in 2023, this is considered a market correction, with AMD predicting "relative stability thereafter." AMD is making profits in other areas of the business, too, like servers and laptop processors, so while it's likely to sting, it's far from the end for Team Red.
Analysis: AMD needs to pick up the pace
AMD's incoming Ryzen 7000 desktop processors could launch in mid-September according to recent rumors, which can also be attributed to declining sales of the Ryzen 5000 processor; after all, very few people want to buy a product just before it's about to be replaced.
That being said, there would be plenty of "excess" stock, and once the Ryzen 7000 chips are introduced, it's likely that the older generation of processors will see a decent price cut to remove the stock, which is great news for those on a tight budget looking for a bargain.
If AMD wants to get a head start, it will have to release the Ryzen 7000 before Intel brings Raptor Lake to market. When the Ryzen 5000 series CPUs first arrived, they were heralded as the best choice for PC gamers, who make up a significant portion of the DIY PC market, and they simply couldn't afford to lose that reputation. After all, play to what appeals to the Red Team's loyal fan base, but you can't sell yourself on fan expectations alone.
Other industry factors could come into play and affect either party, regardless of who has the better product. Motherboard sales are expected to drop significantly this year, with Asus and Gigabyte (representing around 70% of the overall market) estimating that sales volumes will drop around 25% from 2021.
GPU bundles containing mobos are claimed to be partly to blame, as consumers were forced to buy useless hardware just to get their hands on an Nvidia Ampere or AMD RDNA2 graphics card. I would guess that since AMD Ryzen 7000 will require AM5 motherboards later this year (along with 13th Gen Intel Core processors requiring new 700-series motherboard chipsets), we may see an increase in sales, but a recent DigiTimes report (opens in new tab ) suggests otherwise.
It will be hard enough to sell processors in a market where the motherboards needed to run them are expected to sell in disappointing volumes. Regardless of all the current rumors going around, the best course of action is probably... wait and see. We have no idea if all the hype on both sides will live up to the hype, so while it's tempting to jump right into an update, just wait until you hear some solid performance data. .