We are still a long way from fully autonomous vehicles and we can expect the sector to take another 5 to 10 years or so before the first truly autonomous rollouts, during which time automakers will have to adopt a number of modifications before they can get there.
High prices for AV vehicles are likely to mean that the first real deployments will be part of Mobility as a Service (MaaS), including email, car sharing and robo-taxi fleets. By replacing the cost of a human driver and using more vehicles than consumers, companies could create a business model that can bear the high cost of initial autonomous vehicles or even put them on the road. from here five years.
For autonomous vehicles to become commonplace, and not just in the first tested cities, the technology will have to reach level 5 capabilities, where the autonomous driving system will need to be able to operate in all conditions, speeds and conditions. areas. This will require much more sensor technology, as well as more advanced software and computing capabilities.
Two other factors will also weigh here: public opinion and government regulation. The first deployments of autonomous robotics will be in autonomous cities, where this coexistence can mean a mild climate, easy traffic conditions, straight roads, and the local government adopting this technology. It could also mean smart, tech-savvy cities, where road infrastructure will help increase the number of on-board sensors, implement V2I technology, and enable a safer introduction of autonomy.
For self-driving vehicles to become commonplace and outside their "safe" city limits, government regulations and guidelines will need to be put in place, which will also help ease public opinion. It is here that we will begin to see which countries/regions are most supportive of self-reliance and where it is likely to spread most widely.
From a technology point of view, many tasks will take a long time. For example, a Boeing 787 Dreamliner requires companies to create around 14 million lines of code. By comparison, level 4 antivirus will require hundreds of millions of lines of code and level 5 antivirus will require over a billion. This is the magnitude of the challenge ahead.
Once audiovisual vehicles have been manufactured, automakers also need time to certify them. Traditionally, OEMs must complete 3 million validation miles before they can certify a Tier 2 vehicle. However, Tier 4 AV vehicles will require approximately 150 million validation miles for road simulation and certification.
Obviously, no business can do it alone. To speed up this process, collaboration is essential. That's why the Arm team and I are working directly with OEMs, software vendors, and software vendors to show them what can be implemented in five years.
I am optimistic about the progress made by the industry. Regardless of the phase of the phase, be it fully electric or autonomous, it can have a positive impact on the biggest social problems that the world is trying to solve, such as urbanization, digitalization and sustainability. The sooner the automotive industry focuses on collaboration, the sooner we will begin to see a fully autonomous world.