Smartphone shipments are expected to decline for the third consecutive year, but thanks to better market conditions and the launch of 5G networks, the market will return to growth in 2020.
New figures from IDC predict that the number of devices shipped in 2019 will decline by 2.2%, but that the market will shrink by just 0.4% in the second half. In 2020, growth will reach 1,6% per year.
Analysts say persistent saturation issues and longer refresh cycles have not been helped by market uncertainty and the ongoing US-China trade dispute. However, the arrival of 5G devices, while not a quick fix, will help drive growth in the sector.
Smartphone expeditions
"The global smartphone market and the supply chains involved remain unclear, largely due to fluctuations in trade negotiations between the US and China, making future planning even more difficult than normal." . said Sangeetika Srivastava, Senior Research Analyst at IDC.
"Consumers continue to hold on to their devices longer, making it difficult for sellers and channels to sell. However, expectations for aggressive promotions and offers in the second half of 2019 to help empty channels of all inventory and generate interest of consumers in the next wave of smartphone technologies should propel the market toward new growth."
The first 5G networks were launched in the UK, the US and elsewhere, with Samsung, Huawei and others preparing the first installation of compatible devices. According to IDC, 5G will account for 8.9% of all shipments in 0202, which is expected to rise to 28.1% in 2023.
"Anticipation of 5G, starting with smartphones, has been building for some time, but the challenges of the smartphone market over the last three years have amplified this anticipation," said IDC's Ryan Reith.
"Let's be clear, we don't think 5G is the savior of smartphones, but we do see it as a critical evolution of mobile technology, and we expect smartphone 5G to be more subtle than 4G." but it's mainly because we're in a very different market today."
5G will be mainly a boon for Android, whose market share will grow from 85,1% to 87%, with 1.200 billion shipments. Apple will have a more difficult year, partly due to the lack of 5G devices, with its market share reduced to 13% (178 million units).
However, according to IDC, Apple will benefit from a more planned 5G rollout in 2020 as it will better understand market conditions by going later.