The Linear Tape-Open (LTO) consortium, along with some of the biggest names in tape storage (HPE, IBM and Quantum), have updated the LTO Ultrium roadmap.
After a five-year gestation, the group added a 13th and 14th generation, reaching 288TB and 576TB uncompressed respectively (controversially, the tape industry typically adds 150% capacity to produce second compressed storage "hasta").
So the compressed capacity of a Gen 13 tape is expected to be 720TB and that of a Gen 14 a whopping 1,44PB. By comparison, the largest hard drive currently is 22TB with 100TB of SSD capacity.
Tape to face strong headwinds?
The first LTO tape appeared 22 years ago and had a compressed capacity of 200 GB; the latest LTO-9 tape has improved that number 225 times (45TB) and shows no signs of slowing down.
Or the? The transition from LTO-8 to LTO-9 was complicated for legal and technological reasons, and instead of doubling capacity, the consortium unilaterally decided in 2020 to increase capacity by 50%.
Given the two to three year gap between mass availability of the latest generation of LTO tapes, with LTO-9 being the latest, LTO-14 could well be 15 years from now, assuming the consortium doesn't decide to reset the timeline again. .
By 2037, other technologies - DNA, holographic, optics, glass - may have matured and evolved into a much greater threat to the venerable gang. Last year we announced that LTO-10 should land as soon as possible, but we are still waiting.
One thing the announcement didn't mention is the transfer rate, which is currently 0,75 GB/s for LTO-8 and 1 GB/s for LTO-9 (both compressed). A 33% generational improvement would bring the LTO-14 transfer rate to around 4 GB/s, which can be very problematic for both archiving and recovery given the anticipated storage capacity.
In terms of prices, LTO-9 tapes sell for around €8 per TB, with LTO-8 tapes being the cheapest at €4,50 per TB and LTO-7 tapes at €6,30. Prices can be expected to drop significantly by the time LTO-14 finally hits the market, with less than €1 being a virtual certainty. Readers are likely to always be expensive; the OWC Mercury Pro LTO-9 tape drive we reviewed in February 2022 sold for over €6000.
That said, tape has its place in the tiered storage hierarchy: whether in cold storage (either for cloud backup or cloud storage), as a data loss protection tool to combat ransomware through the air gap and as a regulatory compliance mechanism (eg, Sarbanes-Oxley or HIPAA) through its WORM (Write Once, Read Many) feature.