Can a Cyber ​​Attack Trigger WW3?

Can a Cyber ​​Attack Trigger WW3?
In recent years, cyberspace has defined our lives more than ever. Some of the biggest examples are the DNC and Trump attacks, the Cambridge Analytica scandal, the Russian troll factory, Wikileaks, Edward Snowden, and the NSA. All of these examples are examples of cyber infiltration into the heart of our societies. Unfortunately, it doesn't stop at the internet which affects our social relationships. War is also changing. Examples like the Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008 after the cyber attack show that countries have added cyberspace operations to their arsenal. Due to this trend, we decided to investigate cyberattacks that could trigger a major military conflict. The answer is disturbing.

Cyber ​​attacks in a nutshell

First, we must address a fundamental problem: what is a cyber attack? The definitions differ from one organization to another, but use the ones most relevant to international relations. The 2013 Tallinn Manual on the Law of International Cyber ​​Warfare defines a cyber attack as "a cyber operation, whether offensive or defensive, that can reasonably be expected to occur." causes bodily injury or death, as well as damage to property or destruction of objects." It seems reasonable to ask whether a cyber operation that meets the above criteria can be considered tantamount to an armed attack (or, in legal terms, an "act of aggression"). Well, that may be so. According to a monograph by Commander Joshua A. Mendoza, "Existing sources of international law provide the legal justification for an armed response, though they do not use cyber terminology directly." In other words, legal texts on aggression are vague enough to cover this cyber aggression. The consequences of this line of thinking are already being felt in the wild. For example, in 2016, NATO announced that cyberspace was an official battleground for its members. This means that a state attack on one NATO member could trigger an armed reaction from all other members. What better way to start a world war?

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The ghosts of cyberattacks of the past.

The fact that cyber attacks are increasingly being treated in the same way as missile attacks is only part of the problem. The risk of a cyber operation triggering an armed conflict has also increased, as the destructive power of cyberattacks has steadily increased: The last three examples are more than enough to justify an armed response from the victim, but the evolution of technology means that the disruptive potential of cyberattacks will continue to grow. The military is quick to add new types of devices and other technologies to this dirty game. For example, if mobile phones get smarter, they are more likely to be exploited by hackers. And we can certainly expect the situation to get exponentially worse as the Internet of Things (IoT) grows beyond its current stage.

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What we can see today

The trends mentioned in the closing of the last section are not limited to military operations. Cybercrime is becoming more and more important every day, and that is obvious when we look at global events. While attempts at digital interference in the affairs of foreign governments were relatively rare only a decade or two ago, it's actually hard to imagine significant political events not being targeted by cyberattacks. and governments are aware of it. For example, the fact that Russian hackers managed to influence the 2016 US presidential election meant that the midterm elections two years later were marked by increased attention to cybersecurity. We must not neglect the possibility that some countries consider this interference as an attack on their sovereignty. And we don't need to look to 2016 for examples of cyberattacks that are raising tensions around the world: In March 2019, Venezuela suffered a massive blackout, leaving 18 of its 23 states without power. The cause of the problem is unclear, but the country's president, Nicolás Maduro, was quick to blame him for a US cyberattack. Whether or not what actually happened is irrelevant, the fact that it sounds like a credible allegation is enough. Perhaps most worryingly, a few days ago, on May 4, 2019, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) responded to a cyberattack by launching an airstrike against a Hamas compound in Gaza. It was the first time that a state reacted forcefully to a cyberattack in real time.

Predictions to come

The cybersecurity situation is more tense than ever. Jan Youngren, cybersecurity expert at VPNpro, a platform that covers the evolution of online privacy, recently released an overview of the trends we should expect in 2019. Touching on the subject of state-sponsored hacking, he simply said: In cyber warfare, it is very likely that countries will continue to attack on all digital fronts. However, can it be perceived as a realistic military threat? Given recent events, it seems reasonable to assume. The role of cyber attacks in the wars in the Middle East, including the protracted conflict between Israel and Palestine; Russia strengthens her position as a great master of cyber warfare; improving their capabilities to be more resilient, all of which indicates that the world is taking the threat of cyber attacks seriously. On the other hand, the arms race in cyberspace may provoke some skepticism: it seems more like a cold war than a repeat of the most violent conflict in history. - the Second World War. There are reasons to hope, but the future is unpredictable. The least we can do is be aware of the dangers we may face. Laura K. Inamedinova, Editorial Advisor at VPNPro

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