Will Intel's Moore's Law be replaced by Google's Neven or IBM's Gambetta?

Will Intel's Moore's Law be replaced by Google's Neven or IBM's Gambetta?
After some 55 years of Moore's Law, named after Intel co-founder Gordon Moore, processors have reached their limits and mainstream architectural techniques have reached their limits in terms of energy efficiency. Fortunately, quantum computing comes at a time when Moore's law is exhausted, Ismail Akhalwaya, a researcher at IBM's Africa Research Lab, told TechRadar Middle East in an exclusive interview. "Moore's Law aims to double the number of transistors on a chip every two years and this trend is now over. With quantum bits though, this is a whole new type of computing regime and it's not just Moore's Law" , said.

Qubit superconductor mounted on a chip

Qubit superconductor mounted on a chip (Image credit: IBM)

What is a quantum bit or a qubit?

In a typical computer, data can be processed in an exclusive binary state at any time, either 0 (disabled) or 1 (enabled), but in quantum computing, they can operate in bidirectional mode, which can mean in a superposition of 0 and 1 through a quantum bit or qubit. Qubits can be in several basic states at the same time, which is known as quantum superposition. Thus, while one qubit can be in a two-state superposition, ten qubits, exploiting entanglement, can be in a 1024-state superposition. This phenomenon leads to an exponential growth of the possible states that can be represented with respect to the number of qubits.

Doubling the quantum volume

Akhalwaya said IBM was at the forefront of enforcing Moore's Law for as long as it could, but the world needs increasing processing power. "With our quantum computers, we have doubled the quantum volume every year for three years. The challenge is to reduce the noise (environmental influence). Every time we add an additional qubit, we double the power, but we also increase the noise," he said. Akhalwaya made it clear that there were two laws. Under Google's law, the law is known as Neven's Law, named after Hartmut Neven, director of the Quantum Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, and states that quantum computing power should grow at a double exponential rate relative to with classical computing. According to IBM, its name is Gambetta's Law, named after its associate Jay Gambetta, who states: "It appears that we are on track to double the quantum volume every year and if we continue, we should gain a quantum advantage in the 2020s." IBM It recently placed the largest quantum cloud computer, 53 qubits, and it's available to its more than 80 Q Network customers, including Wells Fargo, which joined it last week. "We have made steady progress, and one of the best indicators of success is what we call quantum volume." This is a good measurement to show not only the increasing number of qubits, but also that the quality of the qubits is increasing as well. We've doubled the quantum volume," he said. With quantum volume, it's not just the qubits that matter, he added, adding that it's also how noise gets into the qubits. So, in a quantum computer, he said noise is infiltrates and destroys the qubits." So, the quantum volume is the largest number of qubits times the longest time you can run before noise gets in. We currently have a quantum volume of 16. But, quantum mechanics has a strange property." It tries to reduce the environmental influence "Unlike a conventional computer, we have stable bits, they are not lost, and the environment has no impact on the bits." In the quantum case, the environment interferes with the delicate state and information leaks, which means that the influence of the environment creeps in and erases information.

Window of opportunity

"Whenever you have a good opportunity, you can scale it up by fixing bugs. We are working in this direction. The commercial implementation of quantum computers is underway, but it will take another 5-10 years for mass adoption. In the meantime, we are trying to discover new use cases and we are still working in the presence of noise," said Akhalwaya. For example, he claimed that it took a customer seven years to integrate the graphics processor into his workplace. So you can imagine how long it will take to integrate quantum computing. Quantum computing has many advantages. He said, adding that many kinds of calculations, especially in the world of chemistry, have sped up considerably. "We can get better chemical simulations to determine the energy level, reaction rates and design molecules. The impact should be similar to the way materials science has already changed our world," he said. "When you're driving a chemical reaction or chemical energy levels, it's not as precise on a conventional computer or a supercomputer. The numbers in chemistry are not correct, because chemistry involves quantum mechanics," she said. The way in which electrons move within atoms and the molecules bond together is a quantum mechanical process, and quantum mechanics has several steps.

Extension calculation window

In a chemical reaction, Akhalwaya said that a single extra electron could double the number of possible configurations of a molecule. The possibility of duplicating a chemical reaction cannot be handled with a conventional computer. Akhalwaya said: "We will need millions of noisy qubits." To enlarge the computation window, we can "take the noisy qubits and use them to represent a clean qubit that can last indefinitely. We need 1,000 noisy qubits to build a clean qubit. So, to get thousands of clean qubits, we need millions of noisy qubits, but that's possible," he said. "We know from classic experience that in an old car, every part needs to be replaced, but you can still drive the car for a while." When a problem arises, you only change that part," he said. Similarly, with a quantum computer, "we can create qubits that can calculate longer periods out of millisecond pieces that are made possible by technology, mathematics, and a good understanding of physics." There's no point in building a quantum computer with 1,000 noisy qubits, he said. "You have to do it while reducing the noise. These qubits are based on a silicon substrate and this substrate interferes with qubits and qubits interfere with neighboring ones. "It doesn't make sense to increase qubits until we gradually reduce the noise levels, but we expect to double the quantum volume, qubit cleanup, and qubit numbers in the same way that Moore doubled," he said. IBM has 14 quantum computers available to its customers. Akhalwaya said the mission was to increase the quantum volume every year and engage more companies and universities to gain new use cases. "We believe in a hybrid model of quantum and classical computing for the next few decades. We need conventional computers to load information into quantum computers. It will be like a GPU in a classical computer. We only use the GPU when we need it. We will only use quantum computers when we need it , like a GPU. This does not mean that quantum computers will replace conventional computers," he said.

(Image credit: IBM)