According to a new analyst report, graphics card prices are likely to "collapse" from their inflated prices in the future.
Jon Peddie, who runs Jon Peddie Research (JPR), shared his latest thoughts on the graphics market, and PC desktop cards in particular, in an article for Graphic Speak (opens in a new tab) (discovered by Tom's Hardware (opens in a new tab)).
The report includes an interesting analysis of the average selling price of AIBs (i.e. expansion cards, a fancy term for PC graphics cards), with a chart showing that prices have been rising steadily since 2014, but really increased in 2020 and 2021.
In the US, from 2014 to 2019, we saw the desktop GPU go from an average price of around $270 to around $440, but in 2020 the average selling price jumped to over $650, then to around €780 in 2021. Sure, ridiculous, but we all know the reasons why, and Peddie points them out.
Peddie observes: “PC gaming and mining AIBs grew at least 2x, maybe 3x, compared to laptop GPUs. Therefore, supply shortages should be ruled out as the reason for the increase in PC AIB prices. That leaves the miners, speculators and scammers. This is not a joke.
He continues: “Who benefits? Distribution organizations like Amazon, NewEgg, BestBuy and others, while speculators sell AIBs on eBay at prices 2-3 times higher than the manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP).
However, the article concludes optimistically, stating that "there's a good chance these inflated prices will crash when gamers simply say no", leaving price scammers with graphics cards they can't sell ( or rather they will be forced to resell them at a loss price, that would be a shame).
Analysis: Will GPU Prices Really Go Down?
Overall, we'd agree with Jon Peddie here, and certainly, as we've said before, pricing has clearly gotten ridiculous, especially in mid-2021 when some Nvidia graphics cards were costing triple their MSRP in some cases.
Where to place the blame is equally clear, with crypto and Ethereum mining pressures driving demand, taking the cards out of players' hands, while pandemic-related supply issues made everything worse, and then caused the third factor, namely resellers looking to buy this. scarce inventory to resell it and make a big profit.
As for whether the GPU price will "crash", Peddie suggests there's a good chance it will, well, we're not so sure. Granted, there are plenty of signs lately that graphics card availability is getting stronger, though prices are falling and slowly normalizing rather than rushing.
But the theory has always been that the second half of 2022 will see more of a resumption of component shortages for AMD and Nvidia, with new Arc cards from Intel also hitting the market to further bolster supply levels. It's certainly a promising mix of positive developments, so there's certainly reason to hope that the GPU market will see prices drop at a speed closer to stone than feather.
All in all, it certainly seems like pulling the trigger on a GPU purchase this month would be foolhardy, and it's best to wait and keep an eye out for those price tags that are only headed in one direction at the moment (with the other eye on potential). market developments that could cloud any recovery, such as new lockdowns in China, for example).
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