Bitcoin posted May gains in seven of the past 11 years, according to charting platform TradingView's bitcoin index, which tracks prices since July 2010.
Historically, May has been the fourth best month for cryptocurrencies, with 11-year average gains of 289%.
“In terms of seasonality, May is considered a relative hit for BTC. Over the past 11 years, Bitcoin has finished the month up seven times and down four times,” Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, said in an email. .
“The average upside was 27% and the average downside was 16%. Under these scenarios, the estimated average range for BTC at the end of May is between €32,000 and €48,000,” Kuptsikevich added.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results, especially as the makeup of the bitcoin market has changed significantly since 2020, with institutions and macro traders having more of a say in determining prices.
These entities treat bitcoin as a risky asset and could liquidate their holdings if bears continue to dominate action on Wall Street.
The chart below shows that the second quarter of the second year of the US presidential cycle is bearish for the S&P 500, Wall Street's benchmark stock index.